Economic forecast - It will take years to regain what has been lost
The Danish economy has been through a period of sharp decline. Now we finally see the prospects of a slow return of growth, but there is a long way to go before what is lost will be regained. It is probable that it will be well into 2013 before production is back at the same level as it was in the first half of 2008.
From the 2nd quarter of 2008 to the 2nd quarter of 2009, Danish exports were reduced by 22 per cent. The sharp decline in exports is in no way a special Danish phenomenon. During the same period international trade plummeted by as much as 33 per cent.
From the 2nd quarter of 2008 to the 2nd quarter of 2009, Danish exports were reduced by 22 per cent. The sharp decline in exports is in no way a special Danish phenomenon. During the same period international trade plummeted by as much as 33 per cent.
Also Denmark has seen small signs of improvement of the economic situation. There was a slight increase in exports in July and the expectations of the service and industry sectors have become much less negative in recent months.
Turning point in 2010?
The economic decline, however, has been so significant that it will at least be the 2nd quarter 2010 before there is any prospect of a quarter where sales are generally higher than in the corresponding period the year before.
And it will be significantly longer before we reach the same level of production as in the 2nd quarter of 2008. By the end of 2010 GDP in real terms is expected to be 3.7 per cent lower than in the 2nd quarter of 2008. It is, therefore, likely that we will have to enter 2012 or even 2013 before regaining what has been lost.